01/23/24

Good morning! It’s Tuesday, January 23rd. National handwriting day.

Which, if I’m being honest… feels like a personal attack.

My handwriting is fine! Will it stand up in court? No, absolutely not. But otherwise, it’s doing its best.

And now, the news.

Texas Border Fight

-via CBS News

Let’s start with Texas and the rare good ruling out of the Supreme Court.

On Monday the Supremes ruled that Texas state officials can remove the razer wire that Texas’ governor, and not good dude, Greg Abbott had the state install at the southern border. It happened in a 5-4 vote, with Chief Justice Roberts, as well as Justice Barrett, joining the three liberal justices to make it happen.

This has been a fight for a while, with the Biden administration arguing that the wire impedes Border Patrol operations and Texas saying it’s meant to prevent people from swimming across the Rio Grande. The fact is though, that people are still swimming in the Rio Grande, they’re just swimming under the wire, often getting very hurt in the process.

To which Texas says – yeah, no. We’re not… we’re not like, here to help people.

No no. Well… no! Hey! They didn’t say that (with their words)

Still though, the high Court has ruled with the Biden administration so except that wire to come down soon.

Listen, let’s use our big kid brains here. Obviously we have a serious problem with border security. It’s not new, Biden didn’t invent it. It was arguably worse under Trump. It’s also decades old. We need to have real conversations about how to fix it. This isn’t a conversation, it’s a distraction. Which I realize is Abbott’s most favorite, but still.

US/UK Expand Attacks on Houthis

-via NY Times

The United States and Britain carried out large-scale military strikes against eight Houthi-controlled sites in Yemen on Monday. This is the eighth strike in almost two weeks, though these were bigger than those other strikes and shows that the Biden administration is ready for a sustained fight against the group for making passage through the Red Sea so dangerous.

To be clear, although yes, this was a bigger strike than the others, it was meant to simply hinder their ability to cause chaos in the global shipping economy, not kill large numbers of fighters or commanders.

Because, as a reminder, this whole thing is just one bad mood away from turning into a wider war that we’ll be heavily involved in.

On Sunday, US national security adviser Jon Finer told ABC News: “They have stockpiles of advanced weapons provided to them in many cases, or enabled to them in many cases, by Iran. We are taking out these stockpiles so that they will not be able to conduct as many attacks over time. That will take time to play out.”

New Hampshire Primary

-via Washington Post

And the big story is, of course, today’s New Hampshire primary.

On the Republican side, it’s Trump with a double-digit lead against Haley. So… oh no! What do we think is going to happen?

And on the Democratic side, it’s Marianne Williamson (yeah, still running, for some reason) and Dean Phillips (also, unknowable as to what he’s doing there).

And that’s it.

That’s right… although president Biden is really for real running for President, he will not be on the New Hampshire ballot. And that is confusing, so let’s talk about why…

Remember that, last year, the national Democratic party decided they wanted South Carolina to be the party’s first primary. As the previous first primary, and caucus, states, New Hampshire and Iowa were big mad because they really pride themselves on going first. Also, when you go first, you get a lot of attention. People campaign heavily in their state, and the attention is good for them.

So when the Democrats decided to focus on South Carolina first, New Hampshire said – no thanks and defied the party’s new rule, leaving their primary on the 23rd. So yeah, the primary is still happening.

Because delusion is not just a river in Egypt, Phillips and Williamson are trying to drive a little momentum outta this moment. It will not happen. They’re distractors, not candidates. Meanwhile, Biden supporters have launched a write-in Biden campaign.

As a political science nerd, this is a fun experiment just to see… hey, will people even come out? Will they understand why Biden isn’t on the ballot? Will the write-in campaign work? I am SO curious to see the numbers, so don’t you worry… I will be staying up and you will get the latest and greatest tomorrow.

“Hey Kim, could it be we found the one thing in the world not causing you stress right now?”

Yeah I think so! Why? Because listen… your vote matters. Turnout in New Hampshire does matter, because you never know… I’m not saying Phillips and Williamson aren’t going to be the candidates because the DNC already made their choice. I’m saying that because, genuinely, they’re not running good races. But like… anything could happen. I’ve heard enough interviews with Dean Phillips, candidate Phillips, to know this won’t be the case, but in theory – he could be amazing and the state could fall in love with him and his numbers out of New Hampshire could change South Carolina.

(It won’t. Again, he’s running a terrible campaign.) But you know what I’m saying – primary votes matter. That’s the one you vote with your heart in.

If all the people who loved Elizabeth Warren but didn’t vote for her because she was “unelectable” had actually just voted for her… she would be president right now.

Anyway, so yes, New Hampshire voters matter.

But… if we’re talking delegates…

As punishment for ignoring their rules, the national democratic party has decided that New Hampshire, this primary, is worth a whole ZERO delegates. Now, to present both sides… New Hampshire says they’re not waiting for South Carolina because their state law says their primary needs to be held 7 days before any other state (a law written to preserve their first-in-the-nation status). And Biden didn’t say, “forget it. Take me off the ballot!” He is simply playing by the national party’s rules.

But yeah – zero delegate game.

And that makes this more interesting as well! Because New Hampshire voters, since they historically go first, usually are pretty dialed into this stuff. So what will turnout be, in a primary worth zero delegates?

Exciting!

Silly. Absolutely absurd. But exciting still!

And that’s it. That’s the news.

It has to be. I’m getting to distracted thinking about how interesting this New Hampshire thing is!

I’m proud of handwriting. It’s a lost art!

But more than how sometimes I can’t read my own notes… because you’re clear as day… I’m proud of you.